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This update includes the Millward Brown poll for the Sunday Independent published on Saturday 7th of November.

All figures & data

All figures & data

All figures & data

All figures & data

The largest government party, Fine Gael, and the largest opposition party, Fianna Fáil, have both seen their electoral prospects improve over the last months, according to the Irish Polling Indicator. Fine Gael has recovered from a 22% low early December 2014 and now polls around 27%. Micheál Martin’s party also found the way up, increasing about 2% since late March. At 21% the party is finally improving on the consistently poor level of polling it had seen in the last year.

Irish Polling Indicator: Government parties bounce back a bit

The first quarter of 2015 has seen a moderate bounce in the polls for the government coalition parties. Fine Gael was at a 22% low in December, now finds itself at 25%. Labour rose from 6% to 8% in the same time. This pattern emerges from the Irish Polling Indicator, which combines all national election polls to one estimate of the parties’ standing in the polls.

Independents back on top of the polls

Independents and others are back on top of the Irish Polling Indicator, which combines all Irish opinion polls to one estimate of current party strength. They are now on 28%, with an uncertainty margin of +/- 2.5%. Fine Gael has been losing support since early September and is now on 21%, with Sinn Féin on 22% and Fianna Fáil on 20%. The differences between these parties are so small that we cannot definitely say which one is currently the largest of the three.

Government parties gain, independents fall in Irish Polling Indicator

Fine Gael and Labour show increased popularity in opinion polls in the last months, the Irish Polling Indicator shows. Fine Gael is now on 26% with Labour at 8%, which represents a 3 percentage point increase for both parties compared to early June. Independents, meanwhile, have seen their support drop from 27% early June to 23% now. Sinn Féin support is now estimated at 22% and Fianna Fáil at 19%; neither party shows a significant change in support over the summer.